March 24 2010 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

I had a good read on this morning's contraction. My plan was to wait for a breakout but the price stayed congested all day.

I had a couple good long scalps later in the day off the 1162.00 area. I have adjusted the expectations in my trades to fit the tighter congestive action we have been seeing for the past 6 weeks.

CLICK HERE for raw VIDEO footage of the live executions

The only miss today was the long off the first touch of 1162.00 at 11:17 AM EST.

I was over thinking the trade. I did not believe the highs were done being tested and was not expecting a sell off.

I could feel that it was a good area to buy and was looking for a good pattern setup. I knew I would likely not get one.

The area simply needed to be bought and given room to washout. My primary concern was that it looked like too obvious of a trade; a retest and failure of the Globex low almost to the tick.

I do not like obvious trades because everybody sees them and the opposite outcome is common.

I thought the price would bounce then thrust down to 1159.00 (my original buy area from the prep).

I have a clear understanding of what I did and will not repeat.

I had been burned on this exact long setup before but know enough now to understand that this is a completely different trade in the context of the massive uptrend.

The setups that did not work out in the past were coming off clear highs, not pulling back in the middle of a powerful trend.

This demonstrates that setups mean very little. Context and direction are clearly the determining factor in whether a trade will be successful or not.

I took a small step towards increasing trades today. I will continue to do this.