The price reached the 1147.50 highs today. It has been a powerful grinding trend up to this point.
I played my prep exactly today. My comments said to look for the contraction breakout up or down.
I preferred the long side because of the bias to test 1147.50. I initiated a micro breakout long just after the price broke out of the AM symmetrical triangle.
CLICK HERE for raw footage of the live execution
I ended up just scalping the trade. My plan right now is to take very high probability targets instead of holding and constantly giving back open equity.
This books some profits and avoids stop outs for losses after significant positive excursion.
When I factor in a 2 or 3 point profit as opposed to a 1.5 or 2 point loss, that is a 3.5 - 5 point difference between a winning or losing outcome.
What I mean by this is that taking a 2 point profit in a situation where I would have previously let it have the excursions and then stop me out for 1.5 points makes a significant difference in equity.
I am still going for my full targets. However, to capture them, it will have to happen naturally via a powerful straight line move or I will have to force myself to adapt to a re-entry method.
For now my focus is high probability trades the concur with my premise.
I exited today quickly and decisively with no confirmation. This was because the price was approaching a major zone and susceptible to violent covering.
It was the right decision and the proper way to manage in my opinion.
Drills like today will build confidence in execution and management thus allowing me to slowly start adding scenario trades based on premise and feel only.
These trades tend to require more risk and more trust. I am working on developing the skill to confidently trade my prep like the blueprint that it is.
Brian, what's your take on partial exits ? For instance today you could have taken 1/2 at yesterday's high and then 1/2 at your target of 1147.50. Mentally easier to hold on and it might also smooth out your equity curve. Meaning you can trade bigger quantity.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Jos.
Jos: First, to take off 1/2 of your position, you need to trade more than 1 contract. Brian - many professional traders would not be profitable without the ability to let their runners "run". And when I have discussed this with them they have long ago concluded that trading 3 or more lots is the minimum you need to effectively take profit on the short term swing, and still have something left for the longer move. You have consistently maintained in the earlier section of this blog that you wanted to be an "all IN, All OUT" trader and not a scalper. I wonder then, why would you take this quick profit (yesterday) when you had an obvious target high in place. (The irony is that after reading your blog pre-market yesterday I had the confidence, in conjunction with some other analysis, to hold my position to a test of the highs. So your analysis is not going to waste).
ReplyDeleteI think you either have to trade size and scale out or be willing to trail your stop below low pivots on a move higher and exit either at your target or on a break of the pivot. It's one or the other. And if you are trailing, be prepard to accept many small losses as well as the larger wins.
I posted a response to this earlier while I was trading but want to take more time so I can answer completely.
ReplyDelete