January 29 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S COMMENTARY VIDEO WITH LIVE TRADES SHOWN IN HD 18 MIN

I got stopped out early today on my breakout long but made a recovery and ended the day slightly positive (.5 point virtual break even).

I did not catch the entire move down today but hitting a homerun is not my current plan. Getting down on a Friday and fighting back to positive feels like a win to me. It is a win.

Major volatility on the ES this week. The prep overlay and commentary had the premise exactly today.

I am working on ways to better execute my visualization. It has become a constant source of internal debate and frustration because the projections are consistently spot on.

I have a big goal here. It is a personal goal (this must be accomplished to continue trading) and also goal for the blog.

The goal is to create a steady and repeatable edge with a single entry and a single exit.

This is asking a lot. It can be achieved mechanically with a system but will not be consistently repeatable in changing markets. Thus, there has to be discretion.

The problem with discretion is that is can open the door to randomness.

I am looking for and testing (for everybody to see) the right balance of setups that are repeatable (via patterns) and can be executed consistently with discretion (in order to adapt to changing markets).

This is a tall order but I am committed to doing it. I have the knowledge and ability. It is a skill that needs to be refined.

Going for homerun trades all the time has proven to be too psychologically tough. I think I could do it over time but there is a better way.

I have adjusted to taking much higher probability profits. This does not mean I am scalping. I suspect my average win may come in at around 3 to 3.5 points but we will have to see.

I have been in this pattern twice before. I try to let the trades open up and give up huge amounts of open equity. Then I adjust like today, and take a 3 point profit on a trade that could have moved 14 points or so.

I am going to stick with the higher probability exits. I think it will come out ahead if I can still allow for the occasional homerun that just moves to full volatility without giving me a chance to exit.

I need to address my low trade frequency as well but we will have to do it in a different post.

This is getting interesting because I am going to do this live and show the executions. I have gotten off to a rocky start this year but have confidence that I will prevail.

January 29 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 28 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S RAW VIDEO COMMENTARY ABOUT MY TRADING RECENTLY

I have posted prep overlays and trades for Jan 27 and Jan 28.

I want to let the commentary video do most of the analysis this evening. It is 34 minutes long and is a completely honest review of the state of my own trading for the past 6 weeks.

If you are looking for a positive review that may be uplifting or motivational, do not watch it. It is a frank and somewhat somber recording.

I am talking to the viewer but really talking to myself more than anything. It captures my mood well. All the way down to the fact that I have been under the weather for the past few days and my voice sounds horrible.

I feel beaten up this evening. It starts with the market throwing some punches over the past few weeks then I pile onto myself.

I am a glass half empty type of person. Most traders are.

The video sounds exactly like I feel which is exhausted, frustrated, and angry. Angry at myself and my lack of execution.

I am not trading poorly this week, I am simply not trading. There are reasons for this but no acceptable excuses.

I am reading everything extremely well, better than ever in fact; but am failing to convert my reads into profits recently.

This is a personal battle that has little to do with strategy or knowledge.

It can not be won by changing rules or tactics.

The only way to prevail is to keep fighting.

As irritated as I am about my performance, I am anxious to get up and trade again tomorrow.

This is one the most important characteristics of a successful trader in my opinion.

January 28 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 27 2010 Prep Overlay

Good evening. I got a late start on the post this evening.

I have a lot of material to cover so will do an enhanced post covering two days tomorrow.

January 27 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 26 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S 12 MIN COMMENTARY VIDEO IN HD

I did a 12 minute commentary video tonight which is worth watching.

It has been an interesting week for me. I had a small loss on a short yesterday. The premise of the short was actually correct and played out to full volatility overnight.

This is fairly common with my reads and is indicative of how tough intra-day trading can be. Even with good analysis, the noise of the movement makes it hard to successfully catch the moves.

That is why many traders resort to very short term scalping strategies. A few make this work but the overwhelming majority fail. Some throw around the number of 95% but I think it is more like 99%.

I said in my post last night that I am going to let my edge occur naturally.

It is becoming more and more apparent that this involves taking my premium entries and not pressing too much for the sake of trading actively.

An edge of 8-10 points per week can produce unlimited income with the correct size.

I can see myself accomplishing this type of edge but it will not be a weekly positive result If I continue to take as few trades as I have been taking. It may not even be a monthly positive result on occasion.

What matters is that I have an bonafide edge. This edge requires extreme patience and total consistency but it is there and I can quantify it.

When I used to be in sales, I would hit often hit my monthly goal on an outlier sale or sales just in the nick of time.

Why would trading be any different? The difference between winning and losing at this game is way less than many think.

January 26 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments.

January 25 2010 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

Had a slow and contracted day after the move down last week. This is a common follow up to a significant move.

There is a way to play this type of congestion. I like to have an overnight high and low to work off of but there was not an optimal setup today.

I was down 1.75 points which is a very small loss for me. I made one attempt at a short just after the open.

My prep read was fairly clear and the market did what I visualized but not as cleanly as I would have liked.

There was a sloping descending channel for much of the day. It is tough for me to capture anything significant in the kind of action because I do not scalp usually.

My premise was that the 1102.75 pivot put in overnight would be a lower high and the price would retest 1087.25.

The premise is not over yet. We could see the visualization play out. My projections will often play out over a couple days if they do not fully complete intra-day.

Once my initial entry did not work, I anticipated the probability of a channel or contraction and appropriately stood aside.

I have been meaning to do a post about the infrequency of my trading and my thoughts on the pros and cons to this type of strategy.

I am still down for this month but feel like I am doing the right thing. I am not going to try to rush anything this year. Even if it makes things tough for me.

I feel like with my ability to read everything so clearly, that I will prevail in a big way if I let it happen naturally.

There is not much to cover in a video tonight so I will leave the post as is and we will see what the action looks like tomorrow.

January 25 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 22 2010 Overlay and Commentary

Check out the VIDEOS and enhanced commentary from WED and THURS if you have not already.

January 22 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 21 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S 26 MIN VIDEO COVERING PREP TACTICS AND VIDEO WITH AUDIO COMMENTARY OF TODAY'S TRADE IN HD

This may be a short week but we have more than a week's worth of content over the past couple days.

I did another enhanced video tonight. I may be making these too long but there was a lot to cover.

In tonight's video, I have some more thoughts on the break even earlier this week that I failed to mention last night, a live trade video showing an order malfunction and violent action, and a good analysis into how I created the prep this morning.

My read this morning was very clear and I knew what I wanted to do. I was a little concerned about the prep overlay as the day went on.

The volume and volatility was so high that I nearly ran out of space for the green bars on the prep. I have yet to have the price action go bigger than the space I allow on the prep.

I caught a good chunk of the short today but left some on the table.

I am not going to complain about it tonight because that was the goal. I have revised my trading plan a bit to allow for higher probability profit targets.

The basic version of this is to exit at the first natural area where the market could reverse against my position.

This does not mean I am going to start taking 6 tick profits or not let the action pivot against me.

I am basically going to start exiting at about 50% of the way to my full target. It sounds simple enough. Let's see how it works.

I will let the video commentary do most of the talking tonight.

The last written note for tonight is that volatility has returned to the market and this mooring's action was fun to participate in.

I have not been able to say that in a while due to the tight grind and tough trading.

Once I saw the contraction acting like it was this morning, the adrenaline started pumping and I immediately went into a state of extreme focus.

This is the type of mode I strive to maintain. I am not always there yet but I rarely lose when in I achieve it.

January 21 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

Last night's post went up late. See below.

January 20 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S 28 MIN ENHANCED COMMENTARY VIDEO COVERING TWO DAYS IN HD

Overlays from Jan 19th and 20th and trades from Jan 19th tonight. The VIDEO is enhanced and 28 minutes because there is two days worth of coverage.

The blog is getting tons of hits today. I think this is because many are wondering how I have traded over the past couple days.

It has been disappointing. I have basically been projecting what will happen precisely, in some cases the exact path of the price action. However, I am not converting that into gains due to poor execution.

This is a combination of hesitation, frustration, and distraction. The level of each of these factors is very low but when you combine them even minute amounts can destroy an edge.

There is a very (very) fine line between winning and losing in trading. If anything is off, you will lose or grind.

In my case, when I am off, I tend to have a grinding run of break evens and small losses.

The analysis has been excellent and the execution has frankly SUCKED.

There is no other way to put it. I am still confident and have a thorough understanding why I am grinding right now.

It is still tough to correct and takes hard work.

I am going to win and not by a small amount. I am confident in saying this because my reads on the market have been spot on.

The execution will catch up. I have fallen into the classic trap of aggressively pressing in the Dec - Jan contraction and then pulling back right when the market opens up.

I will likely over correct now that I have missed a couple good wining days. I know this tendency well and will have to work through it.

I need to stay aggressive. Those who read often have probably noticed that I repeat the same fixes to my trading all the time.

One becomes a trader when they have repeated their micro failures so many times that they just do not have the micro failure anymore.

You have to learn the same few lessons over and over again. A trader will either get it or quit. The ones who press on will make it.

Check out the video. It is good.

January 20 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See detailed comments on prep.

January 19 2010 Overlay and Light Cmmentary

I have a lot to cover tonight and got a late start to my post so I am going to do an enhanced post tomorrow covering both days.

The prep overlay looks excellent. I projected the movement almost exactly via my visualization from 7:30 AM EST to 10:30 AM EST.

Overall, the zones and premise held to the tick today.

I got long 2 minutes after the open today but did not hit the home run that simply following my rules would have produced.

I will cover this in detail tomorrow. Volatility is back and I am going to start capitalizing on it.

January 19 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 15 2010 Overlay and Commentary

It was very interesting creating the morning prep this morning at 7:30 AM USA.

My very first initial feel was a short bias and sell off visualization. However, the price was sitting on inside support and was essentially confirming it.

So I had a short and long bias with a master premise of resistance to support (1128.25). However, my prep rules called for inside support to potentially hold and a possible continued sideways market.

My prep hierarchy performed perfectly. More than I realized because I ended drawing a "line in the sand" and mentioned it in the comments.

That is exactly what is was. I rarely have a "line in the sand" on my prep. Then I mentioned that the price was more likely to sell if it could not move a few points off 1138.50 inside support by the 9:30 AM EST open.

It did move off the area but that put the price mid-range at open.

I did not catch that higher low that came in just after the open. (I hope everybody is following) I was looking for reasons to get long but I had absolutely no desire to get long. Nor did I have an entry which was good.

When the price tested inside support at 9:56 AM EST, I still had no desire to buy it but would not go short either. It was too aggressive for me today. I was anticipating an extension and I hate playing in extension areas until they start to fail.

Then we got the sell off. I felt the conflict in the market bias prior to the open, did not buy the move up nor did I fade the move down. However, I failed to initiate a short and did not have a trade today.

I was not interested in chasing the action down. I pretty much stopped paying much attention around 11:00 AM EST.

Two Important Observations Today

1. If I am going to have a line in the sand, I need to initiate a blind entry once it is violated. My method of producing the prep told me everything today. It is a spectacular way of reading the market.

The blind short was the only way for me to hit the short. I spent plenty of time checking to see if i could have imitated a short mid-range and there was no way.

2. This one is powerful. When the price comes off an inside zone prior to the open and is sitting mid-range, this is a screaming sign the a higher low or lower high is coming in and to watch for a retest extension of the pre-market origination point.

If it was going to move back up to test the opposite end of the zone as is always the basic premise, the price would open at or close to the originating zone.

I was not interested in getting long because the market told me it was not going up to resistance. All the signs were there and I get it. It may be confusing to most but I see it and will trade it next time it happens.

No video commentary tonight.

I encourage everybody to go back and check out this week's videos if you have not seen them. I watch them as well.

January 15 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 14 2010 Overlay and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S COMMENTARY AND DETAILED REVIEW OF HOW TO IDENTIFY A MICRO BREAKOUT VIDEO IN HD

Check out tonight's commentary. I did a short review in detail of what I call a micro breakout entry pattern.

I did not have any trades today. I had a long order in just after the open and the grinding tempo at open caused hesitation to show itself for the first time in weeks.

I canceled the order about 5 seconds before it would have been filled. I do not really regret it. It was a gut decision that was made for the wrong reasons.

I have been talking about being a little less aggressive in this grind and using phrases like premium setup lately. The micro breakout this morning was an aggressive non-premium setup and I passed on it.

I know when I skip a trade for the wrong reasons because I get a feeling in my gut like I have been caught red handed doing something I was not supposed to be doing.

Hesitation and My Own Bizarre Psychology

Traders tend to be eccentric and I am no exception. It never ceases to amaze me how I can skip a trade and then root against my initial premise to feel better about my failure to execute.

This can quickly lead to stupid decisions and my #1 problem that I do not talk about much which is fading myself. (we will review this someday. It is mostly cured.)

I knew I was doing something wrong when I hit that cancel button. As soon as I did it I immediately started watching for signs of a move down to test the lows (the trade was a long).

It was not because I wanted to be short. It was because I wanted to be vindicated for canceling the order. This is outright self destructive.

The silly thing is that my gut and intuition for trading is so strong that I knew with almost a certainty that the price would move up. However, I would not allow myself to re-enter.

My trading capability and intuition is strongest when I know I have done something wrong by bailing out of an order or exiting a trade I like too soon but am not able to allow myself to re-engage due to fear of making a sloppy entry and losing.

I need to figure out how to turn that on in normal conditions.

Then my level of irritation will depend on how successful the trade would have been had I entered.

For example, today I was initially irritated then felt better when the price retested my entry multiple times and failed to give me a clear exit prior to reversing after a 4 point excursion.

Had it extended the highs I would have been highly irritated.

If it would have turned out that I avoided a stop out, I would still be irritated and writing about how I did the wrong thing even though it work out this time.

Every outcome is negative when I hesitate. The solution is simply do not ever hesitate. It is much easier said then done.

I could not bring myself to just stick the order in after I missed the fill. What goes through my mind then is the though of getting stopped out an a sloppy entry that I hesitated on initially.

Since I missed the trade I did a small review of exactly how to identify what I call the "micro breakout."

It is worth checking out the video. I will start hitting some good winners soon and we can start mixing in some execution videos with the commentary.

January 14 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 13 2010 Overlay and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S 12 MIN VIDEO COMMENTARY IN HD

The prep overlay looks excellent today. My visualization and premise was on.

I had a long bias this morning but was very cautious of the contraction. I was only willing to take a couple very specific setups and did not get them.

I have noticed that when I decide I am only going to take a certain setup, I do not get it. I am sure there are some psychology issues there but I do not want to cover that tonight.

I stood aside today. There were no premium trades. Bidding into the move down towards 1128.25 proved to be the trade for today.

That is an excellent trade if anybody caught it. I do not hit the moves that reverse inside the zone often. It is an aggressive trade that requires a wide stop or no stop.

I do not have a mechanism to enter after I miss the premium prices without a good pullback or contraction so I had to just stand aside.

The good news is that we have a 20-25 point range to work with. So I will be looking for good setups off the top and bottom of tomorrow's range.

Check out tonight's VIDEO. It is a little rough but has some good insight.

January 13 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 11 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 8 2010 Overlay and Commentary

I had good visualization this morning and was looking for inside support and an extension attempt.

Unfortunately the ridiculous non-action did not provide much of an opportunity to capture the movement nor did the move go anywhere.

I was off screen by 10:30 AM this morning. I have decided that I am not going to engage until the flow comes back. Hopefully things will look better next week.

Just about every trade I got into this week was surrounded by a wall of bids and offers which boxed the volatility and left little opportunity for the trade to go anywhere.

There are a lot of games being played in this thin market and this area needs to get cleared prior to a return to normal trading intra-day.

There is not much to cover in a video today so I am going to just close out the week with a light post. I may do a video over the weekend so check back if you are on screen at all.

January 8 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

***I have adjusted potential inside support from 1134.00 - 1132.75 since prep was posted.

January 7 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S VIDEO COMMENTARY IN HD

I sound like a broken record at the beginning of my posts this week but we had another total grind today.

Trading is extremely tight. There is simply not that much edge in this market right now unless you are scalping a few ticks at a time.

I have actually had more open equity this week than losses but have not taken any profits.

I have the same thoughts on my trading this week as I did yesterday.

I like how am I am reading the market and how I am executing. The results will be there once things pick up.

I am just getting warmed up.

I did some video commentary. I am working on some concepts for useful micro lessons and experiences to share.

January 7 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 6 2010 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S VIDEO COMMENTARY AND TRADE REVIEW IN HD

Another very slow and grinding day today. I could tell by the tempo and action that there was likely nothing happening intra-day.

I am not just going to do nothing however. If there are setups, I am going to take them and let the chips fall where they fall.

This is different from my trading style for the last couple years and has not performed all that well in the past 4 weeks.

I am looking at the bigger picture though. I need to execute when I see something even if it causes a series of small losses like I have experienced recently.

One thing I am not going to do is start getting timid and going into "pick and choose" mode. I need to be able to do this everyday rain or shine and that is what I am doing.

It is important that I do not get discouraged or try to change things when I have a series of trades that do not work out.

What has happened in the past is that I have backed off just as my trades would have started working.

I believe I am hitting exactly what I need to hit and will press on with no modifications in strategy. I am confident in my trade selection and execution.

I made a commentary video reviewing my trades today for the rest of the post.

Good Comment This Morning

I had a good question this morning and wanted to post the response. I encourage everybody to participate with comments, questions, and suggestions.

Today is turning into a complete grind again.

Here is the question/comment:

On Monday we had a trend day up. (Long term money coming into the market from the End of Year/Month Mutual Fund contributions) You tried 2 shorts at the top because their risk reward was good. Both failed.

Now you have Tuesday which is likely to be a narrow range day (easy to back test this theory after trend days) and you get 2 break even trades although you had 4 plus points in your favor.

Question: Why do you not consider changing your money management rules to take into account the likelihood that a narrow range day with responsive buying/selling most likely is unfolding and reduce your point target - or trade multiple contracts on these days and exit half your position?

Brian Hoffman said...

Good morning. That is a good question.

On Monday, the trade I tried to hit was a long at the open and I screwed up the entry and mistakenly went short by middle mouse clicking the wrong side of my DOM.

The shorts at the highs were just probing bets.

The morning after trend range is a higher probability bet in most cases. I believed the market would breakout yesterday however.

Playing the range is more probable which I have acknowledged. This is more of a scalping approach.

The problem yesterday is there was no way I would have faded the move up and taken all that heat.

I get the concept of super high probability and only getting clobbered by a squeeze occasionally. I do not know if it is for me.

I read in other blogs about this working for other traders but I have yet to see any execution charts of live trades.

I do not think I could be consistently profitable risking 3-6 points or more and taking 1-2 points profits.

This can be done more efficiently by managing risk by size and not using stops.

I trade small size and my edge is created by letting my winners run and having small losses.

This is the most efficient way I have to be profitable with small size. As I increase contracts I will take a hybrid approach.

Regarding my exit on the first trade yesterday, I had no way of knowing that the move would stop at 4.5 points open equity.

My only exit opportunity was to take a 2 point profit. It was not worth it to take 2 points and risk missing a potential 10 point run.

There are a lot of ways to trade the structure that can work.

This topic is one of the most difficult.

Janaury 6 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

January 5 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR TONIGHT'S COMMENTARY IN HD VIDEO

I was looking for some movement today with the congestion at the extension highs but the market did not cooperate.

I got long in the AM and short in the PM and had 2 very drawn out break evens.

I was playing for a trend up after the AM probe just after the news release or a sell off after the failed highs in the afternoon.

Maybe I was asking too much of the market. My goal is to put myself in position for the moves and that is what I did.

I made another video for tonight. I want to start combining text and video posts more frequently.

I would welcome any comments as to whether everybody prefers text or video.

I will be ready for tomorrow.

January 5 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments on prep.

Janauary 4 2010 Overlay, Trades, and VIDEO Commentary

CLICK HERE FOR A 17 MIN VIDEO IN HD EXPLAINING HOW I CAME UP WITH MY DIRECTIONAL BIAS AND WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR TO EXECUTE IT VIDEO

I had a very interesting start to the new year.

I woke up early, had some Wheaties and soy milk, then made some very accurate early AM projections on the prep.

I had the trade I wanted to make on my mind at 8:00 AM EST and saw exactly what I needed to see at 9:30 AM EST.

It was a congestive long breakout to test 1126.50. Almost prefect.

Then I proceeded to accidentally middle mouse button click above the price onthe sell side of my order DOM not once but twice (stupid).

It was a very careless mistake which led to a 1.75 point loss. The loss is minimal but missing the only good move of the day after knowing exactly what I was looking for and hitting the wrong button was irritating.

In the past I would have berated myself for the rest of the post but I have learned to forget about these kind of things as quickly as possible.

I made a 17 minute video tonight explaining how I used the prep this morning.

I am going to do this more frequently and am considering a separate video archive of useful lessons I have learned.

January 4 2010 ES Prep Posted

Good morning. See comments.

Some Thoughts Ahead Of A Return To Action

I will be glad once the action gets going again. Hopefully tomorrow. I must say that the past few weeks have been extremely boring to me without good trading action.

I like to engage the market and do not like when things are slow.

I just wanted to air some thoughts about what I am thinking this evening about my own trading.

I need to be wrong more often.

This means exactly what is says. I am going to speculate more in the upcoming weeks and months.

I have months worth of extremely accurate preps on file here and the bets need to get laid down on my premises.

This does not mean get stopped out more often and not hit the winners. I must be willing to treat each trade as if it were the first of the day. Regardless of what happened with the previous trade(s).

Do not be protective of your entry points.

This is one of the most frequent areas that traders have questions about. When should we use a break even mechanism?

I am going to elaborate more on this is a separate post but the answer is that there is not right answer.

I will offer a quick separation in tactics here. Those who trade many contracts and manage their risk merely by size can scratch their trades much more frequently.

Those who trade small size and have stops must deal with the fact that stops will get hit even if you are correct in premise.

So your trades are not either right or wrong. They are either wrong, right and you take yourself out, right and you get low/high ticked, or right and you still have to exit properly.

This is tough. Without discretion, even if you know what you are doing, I think your chances of having a profitable trade closed out are about 20%-25%. This will not cut it.

I use stops. The way I trade, if the trade does not work with taking minimal heat, it will tend to move against me 2.5 - 3.5 points. So I have adjusted to taking a series of small losses as opposed to large risk on each trade.

You have to find your own comfort level.

One thing I am certain of is that just about every time trade moves 2-2.5 points in my favor, it will come back and test my entry point.

So I am simply going to almost never use a break even after a positive excursion. It is just not worth it. Missing a 10 point trade because I do not want to take a loss after a 3 point excursion makes no mathematical sense.

Make some blind bets if the area feels right.

I started as a technical scalper. This makes me prone to want very specific pattern setups to enter a trade.

I do have some extremely powerful pattern setups that work almost all of the time. However, you do not always see them. Sometimes I do not see an optimal setup for 2 or 3 days.

This will not cut it this year. Good trading is not about setups. It is about buying and selling extremes at good prices.

I hate saying that because it does not actually help with anything. We do not know what the good prices are in advance.

However, we can project were they will be if certain scenarios play out. I am going to hit these areas whether I have a good setup or not.

I have spent thousands of hours on screen and trained with one of the best in the business. I need to trust my judgment.

This is important. When I think something is going to happen, it is probably going to happen. I need to bet on it. It is OK to be wrong but it is not OK to be right and not act.

It is time to start winning by large margins. I have the capability and the skill. I am not going to grind.

This market will get the best of me in a major way some days but over time I will have a large edge if I am aggressive.

I will not this market slowly bleed me for periods of time nor will I allow myself to slowly beat the market.

I am better than that.

What do I think is going to happen in the first quarter?

My natural premises and feelings about the indexes, crude, and the US Dollar have proven to be highly accurate over the past few years.

I am not to the point where I can make large macro bets on these premises but I plan on building up to it.

Even though the structure of the indexes is very strong to the upside, I believe they are preparing to roll over of move down in a major way in the first quarter.

This bias will not affect my intra day operations much. I just wanted to get my feelings out there.

Let the market prove me wrong.

Good trading everybody.