May 28 2010 Overlay and Trades

I had a couple scalps early today then had some problems with Ninja Trader locking up.

Ninja has a maximum shelf life of about 6 months before it completely eats itself and corrupts your machine so I had to re-install.

I still could have executed trades but was a little off in premise and lacked the proper feel today.

I am working on standing aside when I do not have the right feel. I think this will save in the long run. The goal is to maintain optimal feel as much as possible.

I had an OK trading week. It was a winning week but hit a couple pot holes that were avoidable on Wednesday.

Overall, I am trading better than ever on the days when I have the right feel. I know when I am off and need to figure out how to compete on those days as well.

May 28 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to watch for potential contraction 1097.00 - 1106.00. If 1106.00 does not hold look for grind up to 1118.00. Trend up is very powerful and overall bias is up. Intraday bias will be sideways to up. if 1097.00 does not hold look for test of 1089.00. If 1089.00 fails, it could trigger an afternoon selloff. I will look to play the congestion range today until it break. I have illustrated my execution areas.

May 27 2010 Overlay and Trades

I had a decent outcome today but got off to a rocky start.

I tried illustrating my execution areas on the prep this morning and the plan was to hit those areas unconfirmed.

However, as you can see, I passed on the two (or three) touches of 1089.00. These needed to be shorted.

The first touch at 9:32 AM EST was a clean trade because the leg was stretched but the second touch at 9:45 AM EST was against the upward structure.

I have modified the way I play the action to the point where I allow myself to hit trades that are blatantly against my bias and the prevailing structure.

This is because I see many opportunities that are against what I would consider direction and bias that actually have less risk of getting clipped out.

This is an adjustment made due to constantly being correct in premise but not capturing the trade due to hesitation, low/high ticks, and shallow tests.

I am still hitting my key areas that are with the direction of the trend but also playing the probabilities of a reaction at extremes.

I guess you could consider it providing liquidity but my bet size does not make any difference to the market.

I am going to try to further explain what I am doing as I get better at executing it. It has shown promise in allowing me to create outlier days but has also produced a couple really bad sequences. Mostly due to frustration and hesitation.

My trading needs some volatility and I am starting to get it.

These counter bias trades are tough for me because it is the opposite of what I have been doing. It still requires every but of knowledge I have gained on structure to execute correctly.

I should have had a much better day and need to just execute my areas and let my bets work.

Raw Trade Video From Today

CLICK HERE for video

I have not posted video for a while. I always record the action.

May 27 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to see if price holds at 1078.75 potential inside support. Be aware that price has already tested 1089.00 resistance so a long at inside support will be lower probability and require some evidence that it is holding. If inside support does not hold, look for test of 1056.00 and 1049.50. If inside support holds, look for extension attempt of 1089.00. I have drawn some boxes to illustrate where I will look to buy and sell with little confirmation. I will avoid executing outside these areas unless I get a good confirmed pull back.

May 26 2010 Overlay and Trades

I had a very simple plan on my prep this morning and did everything but follow that plan today.

The prep commentary said to sell 1089.00 but I did not. I continue to focus too much on what the structure "looks" like as price approaches my zone.

Structure is extremely important in the context of determining at what area to execute a trade in a certain direction. It is meaningless in my opinion in what it does as the price travels from execution area A to execution area B.

There was major resistance at 1089.00. There was no high volume at the zone and the price was making a series of higher lows with inside structure on the way up. It was doing this because it was a fake out.

The price was driven to that area then reversed. There was absolutely no indication of a reversal other than I knew exactly where the resistance was and needed to trust it regardless of what things looked like.

I hesitated at my key area and then laid into a bad read and got completely faked out in the late afternoon.

I need to stay the hell away from bidding into washout areas that are getting retested after they have already been washed out.

Classic fake out. I was fooled more than once today. Overall, execution was extremely weak and borderline garbage.

I can not continue to illustrate what I should do pre market and not do it live.

May 26 2010 ES Prep Posted

Price has set up an overall giant range 1038.50 - 1089.00. Premise for this morning is to see if 1089.00 holds. If this holds, look for test of 1070.00 inside support and potential 1070.00 - 1089.00 range. If 1070.00 inside support does not hold, look for move back down to 1049.50 and 1038.50. 1089.00 is a key area to watch. If price can clear it, there is not much resistance above until the 1118.00 area. I will look to initiate longs off 1070.00 and shorts off 1089.00. I will also look to hit longs if 1089.00 breaks and pulls back as well as shorts into 1070.00 with structure. Today I will continue to play the zones and execute at extremes. I must hit the moves in anticipation of them happening and avoid chasing setups.

May 25 2010 Overlay and Trades

Charts only tonight.

May 25 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to see if price congests at 1036.25 or continues down. If 1036.25 holds, look for range 1036.25 - 1052.25 with a bias for a correction upward. If 1036.25 does not hold, follow the trend down. Next level of support is 1019.50. Levels below that are 1004.00 and 1000.00. I will look for a sideways congestion today but be ready to act if the price starts moving. I will look for longs off 1036.25 and shorts off 1052.25. I will play the projected congestion until it breaks out.

May 24 2010 Prep Overlay and Commentary

I only had one trade today which is a lot less than what I have been averaging lately.

I bought 1178.28 just after the open but scratched it on the second wash down after a 2 point excursion. I did not attempt a re entry mid range and had no further entries on the grind up to 1087.00 support.

I had an interesting observation today. This has become a repeating factor in my trading.

The look of the overall structure was overwhelmingly up until about 2:15 PM EST today. I had no interest in shorting the market nor could I get what I would consider a safe high probability long entry.

However, My premise (and what I drew for my visualization) was a failure at 1087.00. That is exactly what happened.

It certainly did not "look" like it was going to fail due to the inside support and multiple higher lows into support.

The question I have been asking myself is does it matter what the action "looks" like? I have to clarify that the structure in question is the intra day movement in between key areas.

Obviously as technical traders, we base our decision on how the bars look. What I am getting at is that structure looked very bullish into the resistance area but reversed 30 points down off that area.

Why not make a short bet with some room based on my analysis and disregard the path that the price took up to the area?

I think I spend too much time trying to make sense of how the price approaches my zones and what patterns happen at my zones as opposed to playing the zones themselves.

With all the shenanigans going on with the tape at any given time I just do not think a certain structure occurring at a zone is going to be repeatedly quantifiable.

I am sure there are more probable and less probable occurrences that can be researched and learned but how does that help me in making an individual decision when I am using one entry and one exit?

The answer is that it does not. I know where the turning points are at. Even more important then that is that I know where traders are likely to get trapped.

It is becoming more clear to me that I simply need to lay down bets at these areas instead of waiting to see something I want to see to make me feel better about an entry.

Whether it occurs or not has nothing to do with whether the price will do what I am premising for.

Perhaps spending time looking for it is causing delay and hesitation along with second guessing and indecision.

My trading is rapidly evolving into a technique that picks a price (based on my analysis) and hits it looking for an action or reaction with little regard for the prevailing trend or pattern.

I like my chances more as somebody who bets on a premise and area than someone who tries to chase all the retests, shallow reversals, and fake outs I encounter throughout the day.

May 24 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to watch inside support at 1068.00. if this holds, look for test of 1087.00 minor resistance and potential range 1087.00 - 1068.00. Read is basic and I will play the range until it breaks out. I will look for longs off 1068.00 and extension pullbacks off 1087.00. I will look for shorts off 1087.00 extension failures and with structure into 1068.00. My plan today will be to continue to execute at extremes and hit pullbacks/continuations in the direction of my premise.

May 21 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to see if the flash low of 1056.00 holds. If it holds, watch for inside inside resistance at 1080.00. Could see a range 1080 - 1056.00. I would normally expect some congestion but am ready for a wild day today. If 1056.00 does not hold, next level is 1048.75 then not much more support below. I will look to play retest fails and extreme capitulations at zones and try to hold for large volatility today. I will look to take longs off 1056.00 and shorts off 1080.00 and any break with structure of 1056.00.

May 19 2010 Overlay and Raw Trades Unmarked

Good overlay and big fight with the market today for a small gain.

Working on fine tuning my new execution strategy.

May 19 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to watch for congestion at lows. Zones are crowded in this area. I expect a test of 1100.00. Premise for the AM will be to see if 1105.50 overnight support holds. If this holds, look for test of 1117.75 potential inside resistance and sideways market 1105.50 - 1117.75 with a downward bias and premise to expand to 1100.00 and 1124.25 over next day and a half. Watch for a continuation down if 1117.75 holds. If price breaks 1124.25, look for move up to test 1142.00. I will look to initiate longs off 1105.50 and 1100.00 and shorts off 1117.75 and 1124.25. I will look to execute at extreme prices and hit pull backs and continuations after reversals

May 18 2010 Blog Update

I will be taking a few days off from review and commentary this week.

I will continue to post morning preps and overlays then supplement reviews every few days.

The schedule should be back to normal soon. I have been meaning to change the format of the posts in attempt to make the blog more interesting.

I welcome any ideas if there is anything you would like to see. I am eventually going to record my trading live with real time commentary and likely set up some kind of broadcast for portions of the day but I have a lot of work to do on my own trading before I can do that.

May 18 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for this morning is to look for potential inside support at 1135.50. Price is making a strong move up off 1116.00. If inside support at 1135.50 holds, look for extension of 1142.00 and grind up to 1159.50. If 1142.00 holds or extends and fails, look for test of 1124.25 and sideways market 1124.25 - 1142.00 with a downward bias. 1142.00 is a key area for bias. Bias will be down if this holds and sideways to up if it extends and continues. I will look to initiate longs off 1135.50 and pullbacks off 1142.00 if price extends without a retest of 1135.50. I will look to short extension failures of 11420.00 and breaks of 1135.50. I will execute at extremes and look to hit pullbacks and continuations at good prices.

May 17 2010 ES Prep posted

Premise for this morning is look for shallow inside support at 1135.00 and extension up. There was a probe of 1124.25 support in the Globex session. Scenario #1 is an extension of 1142.00 and grind up to 1159.50 over the next couple days. Scenario #2 is a tight range 1135.00 - 1142.00 until breakout. This is lower probability with the overnight probe. Price may extend and make a downward fake through 1135.00 prior to reversal up. If 1135.00 does not hold, look for retest of 1124.25 area and 1124.25 - 1142.00 market. I will look to initiate longs off 1135.00 and 1142.00 after extension and pullback. I will look to initiate shorts if 1142.00 extends and moves back below. My focus today will be hitting good prices and covering then re entering on pull backs and retests.

May 14 2010 Overlay and Trades

The medium time frame trend was down today but I made profits mostly on the upside.

Like I said in my prep commentary, the short side remains tough and the setups that are clear to me are the reactionary long setups at support zones. Even if the price is moving down.

I would hit a good short but it has to be at a good price. Any chasing or confirming a short side move has ended up in a squeeze for me. This will change once the market starts making lower lows which I anticipate happening in the up coming months.

I have said all week my new strategy is very simple. The trades that worked for me today were just hitting my support zones each time they were tested until my premise changed. I had a couple good midday setups because I took a lunch break today.

My revised plan gets me into trades before they confirm and requires conviction with wider stops at key zones. I have spent months making adjustments and I believe this is the best way to execute my premise for my trading style.

The one thing that has been missing in my trading has been the ability to create outlier sequences when my read and feel is on.

I believe that the way I have approached the market in the past couple weeks will accomplish this.

It has in the short term.

It is important that I keep things simple next week stick to my convictions even when my trades look like they are falling apart.

I will likely get tested significantly over the next couple weeks. How I handle it will likely be a preview of what to expect over the summer.

The pressure is always on.

Interesting Read About The Sell Off Last Week

CLICK HERE for article

May 14 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to see if 1142.00 support holds. This is a major area. If 1142.00 holds, look for test of 1159.50 potential inside resistance. This will be another key structural point. Could see a range develop 1142.00 - 1159.50. If this happens, there will be a downward bias. Overall bias is sideways to up with a major range of 1142.00 - 1174.50. Base premise is if 1142.00 holds, look for retest of 1174.50 but watch for lower high at 1159.50. If 1142.00 does not hold, market could test 1100.00 over the next week. I will look to initiate longs of 1142.00 and 1159.50 extension retests and shorts off 1159.50 extension failures. I will look to hit shorts if 1142.00 breaks but will need a good structured pull back. The short side remains tough and prone to get squeezed. It is not worth it to repeatedly short this market to catch the 1 or 2 big moves that could happen intra day. I will wait until a major bias change to aggressively short.

May 13 2010 Overlay and Trades

The Prep overlay is ridiculous today.

I spent extra time this morning putting together the visualization. Usually I get the feel immediately and quickly plot the arrows.

Lately, I have had a few occasions where I needed to review a few different time frames and aspects of the structure prior to putting the prep together.

I think this is because of the complexity of the price action lately but also I am getting more detailed in my premise. Once I put everything together today it looked organized and symmetrical. I usually know when it is right.

I did not have that feeling yesterday and the visualization was a little off. If you look back at yesterday's prep I did something that I never do and it was off a bit.

Today was spot on and I repeatedly hit the inside support area.

This is a major change to my trading style. The basic premise of my plan (it is very basic) is to hit good prices at my zones or good pullbacks and execute a high probability exit with a plan to re enter if the price comes back to my entry area.

These executions add up in oscillating markets. This plan requires me to give up holding single trades for long distances in trending markets but the price tends to congest and oscillate a majority of the time.

In theory, I should not need the market to push to a new high or low (which is less probable) to have a positive outcome more times than not.

The plan has been working extremely well for the past week or so but there will occasions when I take a much larger than usual stop when my premise falls apart. The equity curve will even out but also be much steeper to the up side in a sample as long as I stay aggressive and do not let the price push me around.

May 13 2010 ES Prep Posted

Price is moving up strong. Premise for today is to see if the trend will continue or if the price will congest prior to making a continued move up or correcting down. I am looking for a pull back to potential inside support at 1165.50. This will likely be extended a bit prior to reversal. I will look for a washout fake down and reversal up. If 1165.50 holds, premise will be sideways congestion at highs 1165.50 - 1174.50 to up. I will look for a late day or Globex break of 1174.50. If 1174.50 breaks in the early AM, just follow the trend up. If there is no inside support at 1165.50 and price can clear 1159.50, look for a retest all the way back down to 1142.00. I will look to initiate longs off 1165.50 and play the potential sideways congestion and trend up. I will look to initiate shorts if 1165.50 breaks with structure but will be quick to cover if the price stalls. Keep in mind that the short side has not worked in the past 2 months and short trades are prone to get squeezed.

May 12 2010 Overlay and Trades

The initial visualization was a little off today but leaving the minor resistance zone at 1162.00 as opposed to moving it up to 1169.00 allowed my to clearly visualize the continuations and higher lows on the way up as extension pullbacks holding and continuing.

I did not attack the inside support that developed just after the open at 1156.75 but hit the shallow pull back after 1162.00 extended.

This is an interesting topic to cover. The 1162.00 minor resistance zone was more of a support zone after it got extended than a resistance zone. In fact, the price did not even pause there but the liquidity was virtually the same as at a resistance area.

The shallow pull back was problematic and right on the verge of being unacceptable within my plan. I wrote in the prep commentary that I needed to hit a pull back after an extension hold of 1162.00 but this was very shallow.

I hit it because it "looked" right and that is the wrong reason. It does not matter how a pattern "looks". Sometimes the right trade is to trade what you see and sometimes the right trade is to trade what you do not see.

I ended up taking some heat due to the shallow pull back. I left the risk on the table because that is my plan. If I put myself out of position but the trade premise is good, I take the risk from now on.

Today's trade could have ended in a 5 or 6 point stop. The probability was that my read was good though.

It is worth noting that I had two entries at better prices, less risk, and more confirmation had I been patient. I was impatient for the right reasons and will continue to battle with early entries vs. confirmation and less risk.

The difference this time around will be that I will stick with my out of position entries so my money is only taken when I am wrong and not when I am right but get pushed out of the position.

May 12 2010 ES Prep Posted

Excellent retest of 1142.00 in the Globex session. Premise for today is to see if price can extend 1162.00. My primary visualization is for the market to remain sideways between 1162.00 and 1142.00 prior to breaking out. I will look for a pull back this AM and potential higher low retest and attack of the 1162.00 high again. I am anticipating a fight at the highs and lows of this range. This is a key area. If price breaks to the upside, there will likely be a test of the 1216.50 high over the next couple weeks. If price breaks to the downside of this range, we could see a test of 1100.00 area or beyond. I will look to initiate longs off higher low retests and shorts off 1162.00 failed extensions. I will also look to hit longs if 1162.00 extends again and pulls back to 1162.00 and holds. The market remains strong to the upside. Keep in mind that fades to the down side simply have not worked and are prone to get squeezed.

May 11 2010 Overlay and Trades

Extremely accurate read this morning and good executions.

My revised trading plan has been performing well. I mentioned yesterday that it is simple and consists of executing retests of zones, pullbacks, and continuations that are in the direction of my premise.

A key adjustment in strategy execution has been changes in how I exit trades. I am basically quick to exit at the 1st pivot I encounter with open equity greater than 3 points and will immediately lock up my stop at 2 points profit if I decide that I would go break even if the price were to retest my entry.

If the price breaks out of the immediate area, I will hold for more volatility. I am tolerant of these early exits because I require myself to re enter on a pull back or equal pivot retest that is close to my initial entry point.

This strategy seems to match my feel and allows me to have some tempo with my execution.

The increase in performance is also a result of the market complying with my premise almost move for move. My prep commentary has been describing precisely what happens in advance.

I am working on keeping my execution triggers as simple as possible. It is key that I stay tough when I am out of position on an early entry and taking heat.

May 11 2010 ES Prep Posted

Price is sitting below 1147.75 minor support at. I am not expanding the support area. Premise for this morning is to see if price moves back above 1147.75 or continues down to 1135.00 from the extension area. If price moves back above 1147.75, I will look for a test and counter extension of 1162.00 followed by a move back inside 1162.00 and potential mid day contraction. I will look to initiate longs off 1147.75 if price moves back above and shorts off an 1162.00 extension failure. Be aware that trading on the short side in extension areas has been tough. However, if price starts moving down to 1135.00, it could be the start of another leg down. I will look to execute trades on the short side at good prices and avoid shorting into potential squeeze areas.

May 10 2010 Overlay and Trades

I spent 45 minutes trying to get a read on the prep this morning. Part of the problem was the lack of good data displayed with the Ninja/Zen Fire console.

The structural difficulty was the gap up and the distance the market has traveled over the past few days.

I settled on my visualization vs. using many of the specific structural concepts I often use. However, the structural concepts are built into my feel after doing these detailed preps for a year.

The prep turned out to be extremely accurate and I traded it using my new execution rules which are fairly basic.

To sum it up, my strategy is to hit pullbacks, continuations, and retest fail patterns of prep zones. I combine this with some projecting of channels and triangles. I think it makes for a solid plan that I can execute without hesitation.

The weakness for me is always going to be a bid or offer at a zone without a retest fail pattern. I tend to get low ticked in these areas often.

You can see I was a bit out of position after the 2nd trade today. The price came in shallow of my 1047.75 zone but gave me a pull back and continuation attempt.

In the past, I would have been stopped out just below the inside low/lower high or low ticked. Executions here were prone to get low ticked because the previous support for the day was above 1047.75.

I generally use more macro support areas and had my zone lower than the local AM support zone.

What kept me in the trade was my belief in the sideways oscillation being the probable outcome. It could be considered a minor error entering early like I did. However, in many other scenarios, that entry would be required to catch the move.

When this happens, my policy will be to give the trade lots of room. Thus, eliminating the chance of a fake out stop loss that would have been a winner.

I exchange for this elimination, I will take a big stop out from time to time when I am wrong. That outcome will be lower probability and should cost less than constantly getting clipped out on my winners.

It is important to remain tough in these situations.

May 10 2010 ES Prep Posted

Data is rough today. There has been a big gap up. Premise is to look for range 1147.75 - 1162.00. I will likely stand aside this morning until I get clear structure to work with. I will look to initiate longs of 1147.75 and shorts off 1162.00.

Audio From The S & P Pit On Thursday

CLICK HERE FOR AUDIO W CHART

May 7 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to work off immediate support and resistance above and below the price. Watch the price after the open and see if the market will establish a range or make a move to retest some of the low points put in yesterday. The 1056.00 low will likely be retested at some point in the upcoming weeks. It could happen quickly or may take some time. I will assume normal trading until I see otherwise. I will look to initiate longs off 1122.50 and 1116.00. I will look to initiate shorts off 1135.00 and initiate downward sequences if the price starts building structure pressing down. If we get another avalanche I will stand aside.

May 6 2010 Overlay and Trades

I keep looking at the chart on my console at home from across the room. It is like staring at a painting in awe.

The chart looks absolutely bizarre. I can feel the violence and panic every glare at it. It is like a plane crash. I thoroughly enjoy researching the mechanics of aviation disasters and the first chart above gives me the same feeling.

Today was the first time in over 450 posts that my overlay extends off the initial prep chart. It would have taken 2 charts to cover the avalanche down and spike back up.

We had a 120 point range. That is huge. Since I was flat at the time the price started tanking it was entertaining to watch the avalanche to 1100.00 then got scary as it kept extending down.

I can not imagine what it was like for those who were long or buying into this.

I was waiting for breakers to come on but I do not think they are active after 2:30 EST. I was wondering if my data was malfunctioning for a few minutes.

The bottom and massive spike back up did not surprise me. The price can not travel that far and hold.

There is no use in trying to figure out if this move was tradable. It was a black swan event and nobody is going to make a living nailing these.

It is a victory for those who made it through with their accounts in tact.

My own trading was decent today as I made profits on the long side earlier in the day. I have been writing less commentary because I am working on my trading.

As you can tell I am in a tough grind and my trading took a turn for the worse towards the end of last week and into this week.

I am trading with far too much discretion and not in the right mental state to master total discretion right now.

I am working on revising my trading plan to something very simple and executable. It is always best to keep things simple.

I will get back on track and am looking forward to the commentary to get interesting again.

Raw Video Of The V Spike Today Check Out The Market Depth

CLICK HERE for raw video of the volatile move back up after the panic selling

I closed out my console and had the simulator up after the sell off began because I was not interested in executing any trades during the move.

May 6 2010 ES Prep posted

Premise for today is to see if 1157.75 support holds. If this holds, look for test of 1174.50 and potential range 1174.50 - 1157.75. If 1157.75 does not hold, look for test of 1147.75. I will look to initiate longs off 1157.75 and shorts off 1174.50 with structure. I will also look to buy any pull backs off 1157.75 after it holds and any pull backs to 1174.50 if it extends by more than a few points. I will look to short into 1157.75 if the descending triangle holds on the next pivot.

May 5 2010 ES Prep Posted

Premise for today is to watch for range 1174.50 - 1165.25 until breakout. There could be an early AM contraction. Price made a big move yesterday and is likely to congest. It will be interesting to see if price will move back up off 1165.25 support or congest and make another leg down. The top and bottom of the range will be prone to washout probes. I will look to initiate longs off 1165.25 and shorts off 1174.50 as well as good pull back retests of the range gets extended. I will continue to execute at extremes. Breakouts are not working in this environment. Goal for today is that any losing trades need to be stopped out do to change in premise and not noise from the price action.

May 4 2010 Overlay and Trades

I had 6 trades today and took all longs. Mostly reactionary bids looking for squeezes. I knew the trend was down but had no short setups.

I was not looking for shorts. I have had enough of the constant squeezes and will only take premium shorts at extreme prices until the overall trend changes.

I executed aggressively and was please with performance even though I lost. The 3rd long today was against my new extreme price policy and looks like I chased it. The premise of the entry was to buy after the price broke back above support with a washout and a higher low.

This trade worked the last 2 times I saw it and I executed the loser. That is how non aggressive trading punishes you. That is why I am through not being aggressive.

I was up slightly going into the last hour. My premise was for a short squeeze into the close and to buy the lower high retest. I bought it and the price started to grind. Then the price violently pushed down and I quickly widened my catastrophic 3 point stop just before it clipped me.

My risk was below the low of the day and I was not going to get faked out. The action quickly raced off the washout low an looked like it would run up to 1174.00. I could have taken profits here but the premise was for a stronger move up.

Then the price rolled over and thrust down again. I had to cover. It turned out to be a very ridiculous washout and the price immediately pushed back up for what would have been a 5 or 6 point winner.

I suppose with more experience in these type of trades I would have given it more room. The chance of the price continuing to sell after selling all day was extremely low.

Today was a loss but I did almost everything I could to hit my areas. I will continue to execute aggressively and pull out of the crappy grind I have created by trading too cautiously.

May 4 2010 ES Prep posted

Price is contracting on a higher time frame between 1216.50 and 1177.50. Premise for today is potential range 1202.00 - 1183.50 and watch for contraction. There is still 17 points worth of volatility. I will play off the edges of this range. I will look to initiate longs off 1183.50 and on the way back up to 1202.00 and shorts off 1202.00 with structure. I will continue to look to execute at extremes and need to execute a position in the direction of my bias as soon as I feel one. Goal for the rest of this week is for my losing trades to be executed at optimal prices for the premise and to wait until the move is clear to me. The exception will be 1st pullbacks after a reversal.

May 3 2010 Overlay and Trades

Brief post tonight. Not much to do today.

I had an OK short off what I thought could be the top of a sideways range today. I exited when it started to feel like a squeeze.

Then I forced another short on a shallow pullback right into the squeeze. I think it happened because I thought when I entered the first trade it was very likely to hit the low again and was disappointed when I only got 1.5 points out of the trade.

The right move would have been to play my feel and get long. I thought about it then got short because there was no long setup. It was not a good short but I randomly decided I needed to hit sequence trades.

I think I was just off today on execution. The feel is always there though. I need to get my hands to do the right thing based off my feel.

There was not much opportunity to get long for the rest of the day because the price just continued to slowly press up.

I should probably just be long if I think I should be long and short if I think I should be short.

When I start looking for a way to get long or short after I know I should be it is too late 1/2 the time.

May 3 2010 ES Prep Posted

Prep is complex today. Premise for today is to watch for a contraction. Base premise would be for a test of 1177.50 support but price may contract for a couple days prior to that. I have added more zones than usual. There are several areas to watch and an overall larger contraction that could form between 1216.50 and 1177.50. I will first look for the inside range 1183.50 - 1194.50 today and work off the hold or extension of the range. I think price will be more likely to test 1202.00 which could act as inside resistance and potentially confirm the upper line of a descending triangle into 1177.50 support. This is a speculative projection. Since there are multiple scenarios I will stick to the immediate levels above and below the price. I will look to initiate longs off 1183.50 and shorts off 1194.50 and 1202.00 with supporting structure. I will continue to look to execute at extremes and must not chase my entry points even a couple points.