The action has been slow for September but I have continued to stay on the wholesale side of the market.
I find myself hitting trades lately that are the polar opposite of what I used to consider to be "confirmed" with structure or patterns.
Today was a good example of that as I shorted the ES and TF right after the open. I ended up scratching the ES and scalping the TF.
Early in the afternoon on the East coast, I shorted the ES again with a very retail entry. I had to hit where I did because I felt the price would sell this afternoon and did not want to miss it.
I ended up getting squeezed pretty hard but stuck with it. I used to stop myself out of a trade like that. Many do not understand why I would take 4 + points worth of heat.
The fact is that I believed the price was not going anywhere to the upside thus any cover would end up being a donation to the market.
I dropped the ball a bit after taking all the heat. I exited the ES followed by getting myself into a long trap on the TF because I saw a perfect cup. I was able to correct and get short again the ES into the close but was irritated by my break down in conviction.
I spent over an hour getting squeezed and believed none of it. I need to keep that up. That is how you win.
This tactic has led to a winning outcome on virtually every one of my trades in the past 60 days. Many were for just 2 or 3 points on the ES or 15-20 ticks on the TF but it adds up.
I used to say that a trader should not expect to win everyday but I now believe a good trader should expect to win everyday and should be winning virtually everyday.
This can not be accomplished with a fixed rule set or system based off hindsight indicators.
I am working on getting the new site up and running so I can take the blog to the next level.
I plan on writing in detail about my recent experiences over the past 6 months and opinion on this industry in general.
I hope to have everything up and running over the next couple weeks.
I am going to try to post some trades later this week.
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Looking forward to reading the new blog Brian it sounds like a good thing. Cheers
ReplyDeleteHi Brian - Any thoughts/comments on today's (10/1/2010) price action in the TF. I lost 3 in a row so hung it up for the day as I'm still a newbie. Have not seen price action like where it was fast moving with swings up and down. Just wondering if you have any thoughts on what was really going on and if you have a way to play this or find it best to sit out until it settles down. Thanks
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comments. The sideways congestion Friday was tough and many traders struggled in the action. Sideways congestive action can provide an excellent edge. Especially the day after a big trend. However, after the price has been sideways for a number of days, the probability of a breakout increases. I did not execute on Friday. I was not going to bet on continued sideways containment nor would I bet on a breakout due to the feel I had. I knew it would be tough based on the surrounding structure and confirmed it with the tempo after the open. The only way to navigate action like that is to gain experience through large amounts of screen time or get help from an experienced trader which is hard to find. If you are not clear on what you are seeing, it is best to stand aside until you get a setup you are clear on.
ReplyDeleteHi Brian, I a broker with Optimus Trading Group in FL.
ReplyDeleteThis was a great article I appreciate the time you are taking to write this.
Do you do webinars? Would love to put you in front of retail crowd to help me.