November 17 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

I was down a bit today. I hit everything that I wanted to. The chips were just not falling in my favor until the last trade.

By then, I was losing confidence in the market traveling anywhere and just gave up on the trade. This was a mistake.

When the market is pushing down and making lower lows and then gets sloppy at a support zone, this is usually a sign to me that if it holds, it will not travel very far to the long side during the day session.

My premise was correct but the trade should have been held. The price never tested my re-entry and that is my assumption on these low risk entries. I only had 6 ticks risk.

I think I left 4-5 points on the table which would have put me at BE for the day.

I am really demonstrating to myself that if I keep executing, even if it gets ugly, that my edge will prevail.

Selling the low tick of the day looks ridiculous on the chart but I had to take a shot of it. This type of trade is way outside my natural trading tendency. I am always looking for the support extension to fail, especially in a massive macro upward bias.

However, if I can not get short into support, I will take a low risk stab at selling the low. This is a decision I have made am am going to stick with it. I think there will be an edge over time. If that area did not hold, there could have been a significant move down to the 1083.00 area.

I have to say, I think I was the last one to get filled. The order just sat there and when it filled, it did not budge. I thought my DOM locked up. There was not 1 more seller left. This made it easy to take the long right after going short. I should have stuck with it. I will next time.

Look for the market to gap up to new highs overnight.