November 12 2009 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

I had a good read on the market this morning but it was a frustrating day for me.

Just after I completed the prep, I had to restart Ninja Trader because it locked up. It took me until 10:30 AM EST to get everything back up because my data would not load. The effort from Ninja Trader to resolve these issues is pathetic.

I had a premise for a mid-range breakout and mentioned it my prep commentary. There is often good information there that usually says exactly what to look for.

I was not up and running by the time the price tested 1101.25. There was a minor unconfirmed breakout to the downside but I do not know if I would have hit it.

After the lower high at 10:50 EST the premise was clearly down. The only other good short opportunity for me was the 11:02 AM EST breakout down. I decided to back off and reset for the afternoon session.

I do not like taking trades out of sequence and extended as this one was. I am working just hitting these unconditionally because that is what it will take for me to maintain a good enough sample per week to see a significant edge.

The long I took in the afternoon was simply an improbable bet to the long side with good risk/reward. It was a decent trade that did not work.

There loss was insignificant today. It will be good to continue having 10 point up days and 3 point down days.

I have quietly put together a pretty good sequence since last Friday and think I will keep it up. Everything is clear to me lately.

I will be off screen tomorrow and likely not be posting. I will be back and ready to go for Monday.