September 29 2009 Overlay, Trades, and Commentary

Check the bottom of this post for a VIDEO with commentary

We had the sideways market that was projected today with some ugly washouts above and below the range.

I should make a note that I was struggling a bit with the prep this morning. I do not allow myself to re-think my initial read at first sight. This is key.

Something just did not feel right this morning.

I did not doubt the sideways market but could not get my vision clear until the price spiked up a bit at 9:13 AM EST. Then I made a 1.75 point adjustment.

It may seem minor but I take the preparation very seriously and a matter of ticks can completely change a premise.

It is almost like I had a bit of a headache because the initial range seemed too tight. Then just 1 more bar painted in and the vision was clear.

The market showed its hand at 9:13 AM EST this morning. I also need to note that since this struggle happened,a tough trading day was eminent. Tough trading does not detour me though.

It is uncanny how all my preparation and drilling has given me the ability to see the market. Executing it and dealing with myself is a different story though.

I had multiple long attempts but finally got stopped out at the extreme low tick of the day once I got committed to the trade.

The premise was right but sometimes the noise can get you.

I did a video explaining what I was thinking and how the trade unfolded. See below.

Insight:

I think there is something to be said for the fact that I kept executing wimpy entries on the first few longs I took (1/2 positions, scalping).

I believe this is a result of my sub-conscience knowing that there was a more premium entry.

This is a tough subject. I did not "feel" this trade like I do most. However, the structure and setup was overwhelming and had to be taken.

This is a situation where your gut is giving you caution signs but your mind knows there is a setup.

This was a good setup. The internal skill that I believe I have developed over the past couple years did no like it.

The final factor that made it right to take is that it is better for me to bet and lose that to not bet and miss the run. Period.

It is uncanny that even without the low tick stop out, the trade would not have really gone anywhere. My gut knew it. This is a good sign. Not trade-able but a good sign.

Trading and Time Of Day:

I do not have any consideration for the time of the day in my trading plan.

Of course I am aware of when the market is likely to move or contract but time has no relevance to structure for me.

Often I will have something on the prep that does not exactly play out that day. Then it will complete the following day. I can not quantify time, thus not in my plan.

However, I am sure that a setup at 9:30 AM EST is more premium than one at 11:00 AM.

Like today. I had a small profit from my early trades then entered an ugly 11:00 AM trade. I know I do not like these.

If they work, I tend to have to sit through 2 hours of grinding which causes me to skip lunch. This can lead to fatigue and questionable decisions in the afternoon.

I have observed the lunch time trades not performing well recently.

So they do not perform and I do not like them. Should I stop taking them?

I do not know is the answer. I can not structure my trading around a premise I can not quantify (time).

I will acknowledge that there is a good early AM trade and a good mid-afternoon trade. Everything else seems less probable.

For now I will just trade what I see and try to increasingly listen to my gut.

I have a feeling that when I reach my peak, whenever that might be, I will be almost 100% discretionary in my decisions.

We will discuss this further in another post.

CLICK HERE FOR SEPTEMBER 29 TRADE 3 WITH COMMENTARY SCALE IN WITH LOW TICK STOP OUT VIDEO